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Virginia at Louisville (-20.5) | 50.5 – Opened (-17.5) | 46.5 (Thursday)
The line has gone up a bit, for good reason, after Virginia QB Tony Muskett suffered a serious knee injury and was replaced by the signature, and rock legend, Anthony “Coheed and” Colandrea (5’11/180). He started three games earlier in the year with a 60% completion rate, but his ball defense was too much for him not to catch two starts. Colandrea has shown great difficulty against the run, ranking 137th out of 144 FBS quarterbacks in PFF Passing Grade under pressure. It is reasonable to think that Colandrea will start this Thursday, because it is very important for Muskett to return in a short week with a big explosion. When asked about the freshman’s preparation, UVA HC Tony Elliott said “It’s hard to prepare anyone in a short week to be honest with you,”
This is the biggest problem since Louisville’s defense has been a wagon this year, ranking 7th in EPA/Play and 13th overall with 35% efficiency. Their ability to pressure opposing QBs has been terrible, earning the 14th highest PFF grade in the country while allowing 18 PPG (17th). The Cardinals have beaten VT and Duke by a combined score of 57-3 in their last two games and are poised to destroy the Cavaliers who just dropped their most recent contest 45-17 against Georgia Tech. I think we’ll see this line climb above No. 21 as the week goes on, so catch Louisville now before Muskett is confirmed to be out.
Arizona at Colorado (-10.5) | 54 – Unlocked (9.5) | 57.5 (FD)
In one of the biggest shocks of the 2023 season, Coach Prime humiliated former OC Sean Lewis by stripping him of his play calling duties and giving them to Patrick Shurmur. The result was obvious as Colorado gained 238 total yards and 15 first downs while Oregon State controlled the ball for 36 minutes in the game and forced the elusive Shedeur Sanders 18 times. Believe it or not, this was a change from the week before, when UCLA beat Shedeur with 24 tackles and six sacks, while Sanders apparently threw a touchdown pass to end the game. He seemed to have no issues in the late game against Oregon State, which is a problem this week considering Colorado hosts Arizona.
HC Jedd Fisch has ushered in a respectable new era after Kevin Sumlin’s disastrous tenure, leading Arizona to three straight wins over Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA. They also posted a 77% win percentage against USC, as AZ has been hot against the Pac-12’s top programs in recent years. Colorado will not be able to stop the Wildcats’ lethal team of QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan, who were teammates at Servite HS in Anaheim, CA. The Buffs can’t stop anyone with their offensive line that has continued in recent weeks, and QB Sanders is already at risk of injury. I think Arizona takes it to Colorado this week and easily covers the 10.5 line which is about to increase as the week goes on.
Florida at LSU (-13.5) | 63.5 (FD) – Opened (-12) | 67.5 (approx.)
LSU had the second-worst rebounding rate in the country this year (88%) and the results have been impressive by any reasonable measure. The Tigers are 3rd in scoring per game (42 PPG), 1st in yards per play (8.2), 4th in efficiency (55%) and 1st overall in EPA/Play, QB Jayden Daniels is riding a Heisman-worthy campaign. Daniels left Saturday’s game against Alabama following a hit by LB Dallas Turner with concussion symptoms, and is currently in protocol. Here are HC Brian Kelly’s comments on Daniels’ game:
“He’s going through the injury process. And he’s changed. But this is a process that we’ll just have to, you know, see how it goes day by day, but I can tell you that he’s made progress.”
While LSU’s offense is good, their defense is out of this world, ranking 132 in EPA defense, 116 in yards per game (6.3) and 117 in completion percentage (45.4%). Florida’s defense is also vulnerable, allowing 8.1 yards per pass (105th) and 6.3 yards per play (111th) while ranking 91st in EPA/Play. The Gators’ QB Graham Mertz has been more productive than he showed during his time at Wisconsin and freshman WR Eugene Wilson is the top first-year passer according to PFF.
While I think there is a legitimate chance that Daniels plays, LSU’s backup QB Garrett Nussmeier is as reliable as the second QB in the country. Florida is 6-3 in the Over while LSU is a perfect 9-0 to eliminate their weekly games. I think a four-point drop from 67.5 to 63.5 per game is an improvement and I’m taking over 63.5 points against this fiery defense, no matter who takes over for the Tigers.
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Some Notable Line Movements
Michigan at Penn State (+4.5) | 44.5 – Unlocked (+7) | 48.5 (FD) (Opened at (-5) on CIRCA)
Alabama at Kentucky (+10.5) | 47.5 – Opened (+12) 51.5 CIRCA
Utah at Washington (-9.5) | 54 – Unlocked (-9) | 57.5 CIRCA (Open 10.5/53.5 on FD)
Ohio State vs. Michigan State (+31.5) | 47.5 – Unlocked (+27.5) | 46.5
Mississippi at Georgia (-10.5) | 58.5 – Opened (-12) | 56.5 (approx.)
Miami at Florida State (-14.5) | 49.5 – Opening (-13) | 52.5 (approx.)
USC at Oregon (-15.5) | 73.5 – Opened (-17) | 73.5 (Circa) (-14 on FD)
Stanford at Oregon State (+21) | 54.5 – Opened (-17) | 54.5 (approx.)
Maryland at Nebraska (+2.5) | 45 – Unlocked (+2.5) | 41
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line Movement (Last Week to Date)
- Michigan +240 to +225
- Alabama +1400 to +600
- Washington +1600 to +1200
Top Ticket %
- Michigan 13.5%
- Ohio State 9.9%
- Alabama 9.0%
Maximum Handle %
- Alabama 30.8%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 9.2%
The Greatest Role
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Linear motion (open, here)
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +1
- Bo Nix +1600, +200
- JJ McCarthy +2500, +600
- Caleb Williams +500, +5000
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board
Top Ticket %
- Shedeur Sanders 15.1%
- Travis Hunter 12.1%
- Caleb Williams 10.6%
Maximum Handle %
- Caleb Williams 15.3%
- Shedeur Sanders 13.7%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.4%