S Rajesh
With 13 matches left in the league stage of the World Cup 2023, here’s how the teams stack up in the race to the semi-finals.
India
Played: 6, Pts: 12, NRR: 1.405
Remaining matches: vs SL, SA, Neth
With 12 points already in the bag and three more matches to come, India is on course to enter the semi-finals. Another win would confirm qualification, but even if they lose all three, Afghanistan need to win their three remaining games, while New Zealand and Australia need to win one each. If those three teams have a higher net run rate than India, then they, along with South Africa, will qualify ahead of India.
South Africa
Played: 7, Pts: 12, NRR: 2.290
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Afg
South Africa have as many points as India but have played one more match. Two more points will confirm qualification, but even at 12, their incredible NRR should remain safe.
australian
Played: 6, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.970
Remaining matches: vs Eng, Afg, Ban
After a slow start, Australia got themselves going with four wins on the trot. Three more wins will confirm qualification, but two are also possible if one of them comes against Afghanistan. Since they are also playing Bangladesh, who are out of the tournament, Australia is the favorite to qualify.
New Zealand
Played: 7, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.484
Remaining matches: vs Pak, SL
New Zealand won four matches to start but lost their next three matches. South Africa’s massive loss also saw their NRR plummet, while a slew of injuries fell out of favour.
If they win their last two and finish in the 12th, New Zealand still have a good chance of qualifying, but Saturday’s loss against Pakistan would put both teams on eight points each from as many games, while the loss of 84 or more. runs (in pursuit of 301) will push them below Pakistan in the NRR. Afghanistan can also reach eight if they beat the Netherlands on Friday, while Sri Lanka could also be included.
All of this means that the next ten days will be crucial for all of these teams. New Zealand’s last match is against Sri Lanka, and even if they win one after losing to Pakistan, it could still drop in net run rates.
Afghanistan
Played: 6, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.718
Remaining matches: against Neth, Aus, SA
Afghanistan is the only team outside of the top four who can still get 12 points. However, two of their three remaining games are against Australia (in Mumbai) and South Africa (in Ahmedabad). Two wins in those three games will keep them in the mix if the top four teams don’t all reach 12 points. A win on Friday against the Netherlands would bring them level with New Zealand on points, but they would also need to win by a significant margin to improve their net run rate, which is currently a poor -0.718.
Pakistan
Played: 7, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.024
Remaining matches: vs NZ, Eng
New Zealand’s defeat of South Africa opened up the points table, and one of the teams to benefit was Pakistan. They are just one win behind New Zealand, and a win against them on Saturday would mean both teams are on eight points from eight games. Pakistan’s last game will be at the Eden Gardens against bottom of the table England. Depending on other results, Pakistan’s chances of qualification may depend on that result.
If Pakistan lose on Saturday, their chances will hang by a thread: Australia will have to lose all their matches and remain in the eight, while other results involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka should also favor Pakistan. .
Sri Lanka
Played: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -0.275
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Ban, NZ
If Sri Lanka win their three remaining games, they will finish 10th, but even then they need other results to keep going. A defeat against India would mean they could take a maximum of eight points. For them to remain in contention, several other results should work in their favor, but it is still possible for as many as seven teams to finish with eight points, fighting for two slots.
Netherlands
Played: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -1.277
Remaining matches: vs Afg, Eng, Ind
The Netherlands has the same points tally as Sri Lanka, but their NRR is poorer. Wins in all their remaining games will give them a chance, but eight points is unlikely to cut it for them.
England
Played: 6, Pts: 2, NRR: -1.652
Remaining matches: vs Aus, Neth, Pak
England could still finish on eight points if they win their remaining games, and join the gamble if several other results match up, but with a net run rate that currently stands at -1.652, their best that bet is to try to make it to the top. seven and will qualify for the Champions Trophy 2025.
S Rajesh is the stats editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats