All lines courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida | 47.5 – Opened (-20.5) | 58.5
The offseason betting markets set the line at -20.5 |58.5 back in August, where it held until markets reopened at -17 | 50.5 Sunday night. We have seen a line with a total drop to -14.5 | 48.5 as the Gators’ 118th paced offense will look to limit the Dawgs who average 39 points per game while putting up 4 points per drive (3.7) and 8th in EPA/Play despite playing the 97th slowest in the nation.
Georgia has struggled with their scheme, posting a 92% or higher success rate in every game so far, and destroyed a Kentucky team 51-13 that beat Florida 33-14 while holding the Gators to 69 rushing yards and 2.4 yards per. pick up. UK was able to obliterate Florida thanks to 329 rushing yards at 9.1 YPC, but their production dropped to 183 yards while tallying just one drive of 30+ yards.
I think this game will be on the arm of Graham Mertz, himself he has found a comfort zone under the guidance of HC BIlly Napier, completing 76% of his wins and 8-to-1 big-time throws to earn the right to play. Mertz should be sharp as UGA signee Carson Beck has been impressive, ranking fifth with a 90.8 PFF grade and 4th with an 82.5% conversion rate. I invested heavily in Beck this past season and took him in every Campus 2 Canton league I played. I think he will have another year to explain what he did at Georgia, which is appropriate because he will be the closest to the 2025 Class of QB.
Georgia won’t be deterred by a Florida offense that allows 6.1 yards per play and ranks 77th in EPA/Play. UGA’s D is also top flight, but allowed 20 points to Vanderbilt and Auburn. I think the whole game of 47.5 is very low and they are ready to play the Over here.
BYU vs. Texas (-17.5) | 51.5 – Opened (-20.5) | 50.5
Quinn Ewers’ injury news clouded those numbers as the UT starter was listed week-to-week with an AC sprain in his left, non-throwing shoulder. Maalik Murphy took over and attempted just two passes, one completion for seven yards. Murphy raised eyebrows in the Texas Spring Game with his size, speed and arm strength:
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1716441289594454443?s=20
As you can see on film, Murphy will be the starting QB somewhere next season. Whether or not it’s Texas is the question asked by Arch Manning in town. Murphy is a valuable backup in the ground game averaging 180 yards per game and 4.7 YPC behind RBs Jonathan Brooks and Cedric Baxter. Texas’ 19th-ranked run defense is perfect for shutting down BYU’s ineffective running game, which ranks 128th nationally in pass efficiency.
The Cougars will be hard pressed to repeat their 150 rushing yards and 5.0 YPC from last week’s 27-14 win over Texas Tech who committed an incredible five turnovers and nine penalties for a loss of 80 yards. This will be the 3rd game BYU has faced with a quarterback. , with TCU QB Josh Hoover throwing for 438 yards and four touchdowns in a 44-11 rout of Brigham Young two weeks ago.
I have a hard time believing we’ll get a shootout here, as Texas is proving themselves on both sides of the line and playing well with their first season starting QB. Against the Cougars’ one-run offense there is no need for UT to light up and give BYU hope by turning the ball over like Texas Tech did. I think Under 51.5 is the play here.
Army vs. UMass (+10) | 47.5 – Unlocked (+13.5) | 45.5
Army is 7-1 to Over and 1-7 straight in eight games, while Army is 4-3 to Over. These figures represent a two-point increase in the number, which is rare for a service school. Yet HC Don Brown’s UMass team is arguably the worst defense in the country, ranking 131st in offense (50.5%) and yards per play allowed (7.4) while finishing dead last in EPA/Play with 42.4 points allowed. The Minutemen have also blown potential wins against Eastern Michigan (86% win rate) and New Mexico (61%), and have lost seven straight games following a Week 1 win over NMSU.
Army is coming off a Power Five run against Syracuse, BC, Troy and a 62-0 loss at the hands of LSU last week. The Black Knights see the Minutemen as settled into their brutal system and will be highly motivated to do well against UMass’ aforementioned woeful defense before taking on Air Force next week. The problem is whether or not their starting dual threat QB Bryson Daily plays, as they have scored Zero points in their last two games without him. Freshman QB Champ Harris is 13-of-26 for 130 yards and three touchdowns so far in his collegiate career. Watch the game and if Daily doesn’t play, the Under 47.5 points look pretty good because of the Warriors’ 130 offense.
Some of the Most Popular Directions:
Oklahoma vs. Kansas (+10) | 66.5 – Unlocked (+11.5) | 63.5
Penn State (-30.5) at Indiana | 44.5 – Opened (-27.5) | 47.5
Oregon vs. Utah (+6.5) | 49.5 – Unlocked (+5.5) | 52.5
Mississippi State vs. Auburn (-6.5) | 43.5 – Opened (-6.5) | 47.5
USC vs. Cal (+10.5) | 66.5 – Unlocked (+7) | 63.5
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State (-7.5) | 54.5 – Opened (-5.5) | 53.5
Oregon State vs. Arizona (+3.5) | 56.5 – Opened (-5.5) | 56.5
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line Movement (Last Week to Date)
- Michigan +300 to +225
- Ohio State +900 to +700
- Florida State +900 to +750
- Alabama +1800 to +1400
Top Ticket %
- Michigan 13.8%
- Ohio State 9.5%
- Colorado 9.5%
Maximum Handle %
- Alabama 31.9%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 9.9%
The Greatest Role
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Linear motion (open, here)
- JJ McCarthy +2500, +240
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +3
- Caleb Williams +500, +10000
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board (injury)
Top Ticket %
- Shedeur Sanders 16.9%
- Travis Hunter 13.6%
- Caleb Williams 10.4%
Maximum Handle %
- Caleb Williams 16.8%
- Shedeur Sanders 15.6%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.2%